The incremental vote in East Texas

Plus, the changes that we need in the state legislature

With less than month to go before Election Day, Beto O’Rourke has a fighting chance to be Texas’ next governor. The latest poll this week indicates Gov. Greg Abbot has a 4-point lead over O’Rourke, within the poll’s margin of error at 4.4 percent.

That means that, assuming the poll is correct, O’Rourke could actually be ahead in the race. It also means he could be more than 8 percentage points behind, if taken to the other extreme. It was most likely close to the 4 percent at the time the poll was recorded.

That alone is huge, first because it is trending to a closer race and, at least from O’Rourke’s perspective, going in the right direction.

So where does East Texas fit in? O’Rourke is not likely to take any surprise victories behind the Pine Curtain. The Republicans hold on here as they always have. There has not been a Democratic wave.

O’Rourke doesn’t need that, though. What he needs is an incremental increase in support throughout this area. I am not smart enough to know if his support throughout the region is growing but there are signs.

Foremost is the increase in crowd size at almost all his East Texas campaign stops over the last two months. If Beto were Donald Trump (perish the thought) he would be crowing about the “huuuuuge” crowds being proof that he could not lose.

What large crowds prove is interest and possible support but filling a large hall means nothing if people don’t actually vote. That will be the key to this election: Who votes. This is also why the polls may be skewed in Abbott’s favor.

Pollsters aim toward “likely voters.” Not all those who support O’Rourke fit into that mold and may be under-represented in the polling.

O’Rourke may not prevail in a single East Texas county but making a dent is an important path to victory.

Meanwhile, Abbott is concentrating on suburbs surrounding the largest cities which, once upon a time, gave him significant support. Abbott isn’t exactly ignoring East Texas but he sure seems to be taking it for granted. He might have information that makes him confident that he can do this, but I’m doubtful it is accurate.

A win by O’Rourke would certainly lift all the other Democratic chances, primarily the candidacy of Attorney General candidate Rochelle Garza, who is running against incumbent Ken Paxton, who has spent years now avoiding answering to federal criminal charges.

Sadly, Paxton will probably win but Garza is giving it her best and the race is close. Plenty of Republicans are disgusted by Paxton’s antics but, of course, that doesn’t mean they still won’t vote for him.

After all, he is a strong supporter of The Donald and that is enough for some to overlook pesky little felonies and seditious conspiracies. Otherwise, the polls don’t look so good for the other Democrats in the fray but hope springs eternal and support for O’Rourke will be a plus.

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I’ve seen no reliable information on how legislative races are going, though in East Texas it is difficult to believe that much, if anything, will change. Our representation will stay solidly Republican.

If the Texas Legislature is not moved away from Republican domination not much is going to change in state politics. Just turning one of the two houses from Republican to Democrat could prevent a great deal of mischief. Had that been the case in the last session, several bad bills could have been avoided.

Truthfully, one party governing is not the best, no matter which party is in control. If the Republicans continue to hold power over all three branches of government, as they have soi so long, we can expect even more mischief in the upcoming session.

There are changes that could be wrought that we can’t even fathom. Who would have thought, for instance, that we’d be banning fine literature from school libraries, or forcing history teachers to obscure telling the full truth about our state?

But it can happen and has already. It would be nice to see some sense brought back into our state but that’s not the status quo and matters will only change if enough people turn out to cast a vote.

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