Polls don’t tell full story in governor race

Also, don't weep too much for Liz Cheney

Since the election of one Donald J. Trump as president of the United States, when the polls predicted a resounding victory for Hillary Clinton, a lot of us have cast a wary eye toward political polls.

Right now, incorrect polls would be a positive for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke as the latest to be revealed show Gov. Greg Abbott with a 7 percent lead.

The poll has about a 3 percent “margin of error,” which means that Abbott’s lead could conceivably be as high as 10 percent or as low as 4 percent. With two months before the election, even the 10 percent margin can be overcome but obviously 4 percent would be a much easier task.

The polls themselves could point to some discrepancy. They showed that a majority of Texans saw the state as “going in the wrong direction.”

That doesn’t jive with Abbott — whose main job responsibility is the direction of the state — leading by 7 points, or really leading at all. Why would voters want to reinstall the person who has been firmly in charge for all these years?

No one can blame Democrats for any of this mess. No one from that party has held a statewide post for decades. The legislature, too, has been firmly in the grip of the GOP for that entire time. The Republicans own everything that is happening in this state right now, no matter how much they might want to blame it on some other person or force.

There are other signs those polls might be amiss. Saturday I took a short drive to the northern part of the Pine Curtain to see O’Rourke’s visit to Greenville.

Greenville is the seat of Hunt County, which is not exactly a Democratic bastion. In the 2020 election, Trump won with more than 76 percent of the vote in that county and no Democrat running there got as much as 25 percent of the vote in any race.

I wasn’t worried about getting a seat to watch him speak in the city that was once announced with the sign, “The Blackest Land, the Whitest People.” The sign came down in the 1960s but that doesn’t mean attitudes had changed. I wasn’t expecting much of a crowd.

So much for my powers of political prognostication.

The first indication was that there was no place to park within two blocks. At least three parking lots were full and cars lined all the streets around. When we got out of the car, a friendly police officer told us that the venue was full and no one else would be allowed in.

The officer said O’Rourke was expected to come outside after his speech to the 500 people who were waiting patiently inside.

While standing in the crowd people told m the venue had already been changed three times. The first plan was to hold the meeting in a restaurant that held about 50 people. Then it was moved to a venue that held three times what the restaurant would have.

No one thought they would fill the final hall. Wrong again.

There may not be an indoor location in Greenville big enough for that crowd.

Political prognostication might not be my forte, but this race is going to be close, period. The pre-balloting polls may show it and they might not. That does not mean O’Rourke will win and I’m sure he would agree.

There’s a huge amount of work his campaign must do between now and election day and this election could even turn on a slip by one of the candidates or some “October” surprise.

A few Texans are pleased as they can be about the direction of the state toward a theocracy, where women’s rights are constrained at every opportunity, where neighbor can profit monetarily by suing neighbor who merely helps someone get access to abortion care, where schools can’t teach real history, where libraries must censor books or face recrimination, where mental health care is abysmal — even Abbott agrees — yet nothing is being done to improve it, where rural health care is in near crisis, where the child welfare system is in such disarray that children may be in more danger within it than without it, where oil and gas companies hold tremendous sway over state policies, where the power grid for the state is almost constantly at the edge of collapse, where the state only makes the federal immigration problem worse and more inhumane, where voting is made about as difficult as possible, where zip is done about gun violence and where public health policies seem to be mandated by groups that know nothing about health care.

If you like all that — and more — then, congratulations, you already have it. If you want something different you might consider changing the government. It is within your power to do just that.

 No matter which way you vote, it is important to remember that you make certain you are registered to vote and you must do this before the deadline to register on Oct. 11.

You can do this fairly simply if you have access to any sort of computer (including the one on your telephone). Go to https://www.texas.gov/living-in-texas/texas-voter-registration/ and click on the button that says “check if your’re registered.”

Do this in plenty of time. This is one election you really don’t want to miss.

***

Liz Cheney is likely going to lose her Republican Party primary bid in Wyoming Tuesday night. This is being written before results are in.

Oddly, this will likely cause more angst among Democrats than Republicans. Dems far and wide — particularly in Texas — have been sending Cheney contributions to win her race against a Trump acolyte.

It is exciting to see Cheney step up to the plate when she knows that doing so likely means she’s out of Congress.

But let’s be honest, Cheney voted with Trump 96 percent of the time even when it was clear the man was either deranged, dishonest or, quite likely, both.

It’s nice to see she finally saw the blinding light and a little sad to see that she is what passes for the “high road” in the Republican Party.

We should not weep too much, though. Republicans were quite willing to follow Trump off the cliff, so they should not be surprised with they hit the bottom.

Phil Latham writes another newsletter on Substack, “American Slave Stories,” which aims to keep the stories of those who built America alive. You can support this effort and research by subscribing for $5 a month.